Theories That Don’t Work, and Science That Isn’t Science
Richard Feynman
From a Caltech commencement address given in 1974
Also in Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman!
During the Middle Ages there were all kinds of crazy ideas,
such as that a piece of of rhinoceros horn would increase potency. Then a
method was discovered for separating the ideas–which was to try one to see if
it worked, and if it didn’t work, to eliminate it. This method became
organized, of course, into science. And it developed very well, so that we are
now in the scientific age. It is such a scientific age, in fact, that we have
difficulty in understanding how witch doctors could ever have existed, when
nothing that they proposed ever really worked–or very little of it did.
But even today I meet lots of people who sooner or later get
me into a conversation about UFO’s, or astrology, or some form of mysticism,
expanded consciousness, new types of awareness, ESP, and so forth. And I’ve
concluded that it’s not a scientific world.
Most people believe so many wonderful things that I decided
to investigate why they did. And what has been referred to as my curiosity for
investigation has landed me in a difficulty where I found so much junk that I’m
overwhelmed. First I started out by investigating various ideas of mysticism
and mystic experiences. I went into isolation tanks and got many hours of
hallucinations, so I know something about that. Then I went to Esalen, which is
a hotbed of this kind of thought (it’s a wonderful place; you should go visit
there). Then I became overwhelmed. I didn’t realize how MUCH there was.
At Esalen there are some large baths fed by hot springs
situated on a ledge about thirty feet above the ocean. One of my most
pleasurable experiences has been to sit in one of those baths and watch the
waves crashing onto the rocky slope below, to gaze into the clear blue sky
above, and to study a beautiful nude as she quietly appears and settles into
the bath with me.
One time I sat down in a bath where there was a beautiful
girl sitting with a guy who didn’t seem to know her. Right away I began
thinking, “Gee! How am I gonna get started talking to this beautiful nude
woman?”
I’m trying to figure out what to say, when the guy says to
her, “I’m, uh, studying massage. Could I practice on you?” “Sure,” she says.
They get out of the bath and she lies down on a massage table nearby. I think
to myself, “What a nifty line! I can never think of anything like that!” He
starts to rub her big toe. “I think I feel it,” he says. “I feel a kind of
dent–is that the pituitary?” I blurt out, “You’re a helluva long way from the
pituitary, man!” They looked at me, horrified–I had blown my cover–and said,
“It’s reflexology!” I quickly closed my eyes and appeared to be meditating.
That’s just an example of the kind of things that overwhelm
me. I also looked into extrasensory perception, and PSI phenomena, and the
latest craze there was Uri Geller, a man who is supposed to be able to bend
keys by rubbing them with his finger. So I went to his hotel room, on his
invitation, to see a demonstration of both mind reading and bending keys. He
didn’t do any mind reading that succeeded; nobody can read my mind, I guess.
And my boy held a key and Geller rubbed it, and nothing happened. Then he told
us it works better under water, and so you can picture all of us standing in
the bathroom with the water turned on and the key under it, and him rubbing the
key with his finger. Nothing happened. So I was unable to investigate that
phenomenon.
But then I began to think, what else is there that we
believe? (And I thought then about the witch doctors, and how easy it would
have been to check on them by noticing that nothing really worked.) So I found
things that even more people believe, such as that we have some knowledge of
how to educate. There are big schools of reading methods and mathematics
methods, and so forth, but if you notice, you’ll see the reading scores keep
going down–or hardly going up–in spite of the fact that we continually use these
same people to improve the methods. There’s a witch doctor remedy that doesn’t
work. It ought to be looked into; how do they know that their method should
work? Another example is how to treat criminals. We obviously have made no
progress–lots of theory, but no progress–in decreasing the amount of crime by
the method that we use to handle criminals.
Yet these things are said to be scientific. We study them.
And I think ordinary people with commonsense ideas are intimidated by this
pseudoscience. A teacher who has some good idea of how to teach her children to
read is forced by the school system to do it some other way–or is even fooled
by the school system into thinking that her method is not necessarily a good
one. Or a parent of bad boys, after disciplining them in one way or another,
feels guilty for the rest of her life because she didn’t do “the right thing,”
according to the experts.
So we really ought to look into theories that don’t work,
and science that isn’t science.
I think the educational and psychological studies I
mentioned are examples of what I would like to call cargo cult science. In the
South Seas there is a cargo cult of people. During the war they saw airplanes
with lots of good materials, and they want the same thing to happen now. So
they’ve arranged to make things like runways, to put fires along the sides of
the runways, to make a wooden hut for a man to sit in, with two wooden pieces
on his head to headphones and bars of bamboo sticking out like antennas–he’s
the controller–and they wait for the airplanes to land. They’re doing
everything right. The form is perfect. It looks exactly the way it looked
before. But it doesn’t work. No airplanes land. So I call these things cargo
cult science, because they follow all the apparent precepts and forms of
scientific investigation, but they’re missing something essential, because the
planes don’t land.
Now it behooves me, of course, to tell you what they’re
missing. But it would be just about as difficult to explain to the South Sea
islanders how they have to arrange things so that they get some wealth in their
system. It is not something simple like telling them how to improve the shapes
of the earphones. But there is one feature I notice that is generally missing
in cargo cult science. That is the idea that we all hope you have learned in
studying science in school–we never say explicitly what this is, but just hope
that you catch on by all the examples of scientific investigation. It is
interesting, therefore, to bring it out now and speak of it explicitly. It’s a
kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that
corresponds to a kind of utter honesty–a kind of leaning over backwards. For
example, if you’re doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think
might make it invalid–not only what you think is right about it: other causes
that could possibly explain your results; and things you thought of that you’ve
eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked–to make sure the other
fellow can tell they have been eliminated.
Details that could throw doubt on your interpretation must
be given, if you know them. You must do the best you can–if you know anything
at all wrong, or possibly wrong–to explain it. If you make a theory, for
example, and advertise it, or put it out, then you must also put down all the
facts that disagree with it, as well as those that agree with it. There is also
a more subtle problem. When you have put a lot of ideas together to make an
elaborate theory, you want to make sure, when explaining what it fits, that
those things it fits are not just the things that gave you the idea for the
theory; but that the finished theory makes something else come out right, in
addition.
In summary, the idea is to give all of the information to
help others to judge the value of your contribution; not just the information
that leads to judgement in one particular direction or another.
The easiest way to explain this idea is to contrast it, for
example, with advertising. Last night I heard that Wesson oil doesn’t soak
through food. Well, that’s true. It’s not dishonest; but the thing I’m talking
about is not just a matter of not being dishonest; it’s a matter of scientific
integrity, which is another level. The fact that should be added to that
advertising statement is that no oils soak through food, if operated at a
certain temperature. If operated at another temperature, they all
will–including Wesson oil. So it’s the implication which has been conveyed, not
the fact, which is true, and the difference is what we have to deal with.
We’ve learned from experience that the truth will come out.
Other experimenters will repeat your experiment and find out whether you were
wrong or right. Nature’s phenomena will agree or they’ll disagree with your theory.
And, although you may gain some temporary fame and excitement, you will not
gain a good reputation as a scientist if you haven’t tried to be very careful
in this kind of work. And it’s this type of integrity, this kind of care not to
fool yourself, that is missing to a large extent in much of the research in
cargo cult science.
A great deal of their difficulty is, of course, the
difficulty of the subject and the inapplicability of the scientific method to
the subject. Nevertheless, it should be remarked that this is not the only
difficulty. That’s why the planes don’t land–but they don’t land.
We have learned a lot from experience about how to handle
some of the ways we fool ourselves. One example: Millikan measured the charge
on an electron by an experiment with falling oil drops, and got an answer which
we now know not to be quite right. It’s a little bit off because he had the
incorrect value for the viscosity of air. It’s interesting to look at the
history of measurements of the charge of an electron, after Millikan. If you
plot them as a function of time, you find that one is a little bit bigger than
Millikan’s, and the next one’s a little bit bigger than that, and the next
one’s a little bit bigger than that, until finally they settle down to a number
which is higher.
Why didn’t they discover the new number was higher right
away? It’s a thing that scientists are ashamed of–this history–because it’s
apparent that people did things like this: When they got a number that was too
high above Millikan’s, they thought something must be wrong–and they would look
for and find a reason why something might be wrong. When they got a number
close to Millikan’s value they didn’t look so hard. And so they eliminated the
numbers that were too far off, and did other things like that. We’ve learned
those tricks nowadays, and now we don’t have that kind of a disease.
But this long history of learning how to not fool
ourselves–of having utter scientific integrity–is, I’m sorry to say, something
that we haven’t specifically included in any particular course that I know of.
We just hope you’ve caught on by osmosis.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself–and
you are the easiest person to fool. So you have to be very careful about that.
After you’ve not fooled yourself, it’s easy not to fool other scientists. You
just have to be honest in a conventional way after that. I would like to add something that’s not essential to the
science, but something I kind of believe, which is that you should not fool the
layman when you’re talking as a scientist. I am not trying to tell you what to
do about cheating on your wife, or fooling your girlfriend, or something like
that, when you’re not trying to be a scientist, but just trying to be an
ordinary human being. We’ll leave those problems up to you and your rabbi. I’m
talking about a specific, extra type of integrity that is not lying, but
bending over backwards to show how you’re maybe wrong, that you ought to have
when acting as a scientist. And this is our responsibility as scientists,
certainly to other scientists, and I think to laymen.
For example, I was a little surprised when I was talking to
a friend who was going to go on the radio. He does work on cosmology and
astronomy, and he wondered how he would explain what the applications of his
work were. “Well,” I said, “there aren’t any.” He said, “Yes, but then we won’t
get support for more research of this kind.” I think that’s kind of dishonest.
If you’re representing yourself as a scientist, then you should explain to the
layman what you’re doing– and if they don’t support you under those
circumstances, then that’s their decision.
One example of the principle is this: If you’ve made up your
mind to test a theory, or you want to explain some idea, you should always
decide to publish it whichever way it comes out. If we only publish results of
a certain kind, we can make the argument look good. We must publish BOTH kinds
of results.
I say that’s also important in giving certain types of
government advice. Supposing a senator asked you for advice about whether
drilling a hole should be done in his state; and you decide it would be better
in some other state. If you don’t publish such a result, it seems to me you’re
not giving scientific advice. You’re being used. If your answer happens to come
out in the direction the government or the politicians like, they can use it as
an argument in their favor; if it comes out the other way, they don’t publish
at all. That’s not giving scientific advice.
Other kinds of errors are more characteristic of poor
science. When I was at Cornell, I often talked to the people in the psychology
department. One of the students told me she wanted to do an experiment that
went something like this–it had been found by others that under certain
circumstances, X, rats did something, A. She was curious as to whether, if she
changed the circumstances to Y, they would still do A. So her proposal was to
do the experiment under circumstances Y and see if they still did A.
I explained to her that it was necessary first to repeat in
her laboratory the experiment of the other person–to do it under condition X to
see if she could also get result A, and then change to Y and see if A changed.
Then she would know the real difference was the thing she thought she had under
control.
She was very delighted with this new idea, and went to her
professor. And his reply was, no, you cannot do that, because the experiment
has already been done and you would be wasting time. This was in about 1947 or
so, and it seems to have been the general policy then to not try to repeat
psychological experiments, but only to change the conditions and see what
happened.
Nowadays, there’s a certain danger of the same thing
happening, even in the famous field of physics. I was shocked to hear of an
experiment being done at the big accelerator at the National Accelerator
Laboratory, where a person used deuterium. In order to compare his heavy
hydrogen results to what might happen with light hydrogen, he had to use data
from someone else’s experiment on light hydrogen, which was done on different
apparatus. When asked why, he said it was because he couldn’t get time on the
program (because there’s so little time and it’s such expensive apparatus) to
do the experiment with light hydrogen on this apparatus because there wouldn’t
be any new result. And so the men in charge of programs at NAL are so anxious
for new results, in order to get more money to keep the thing going for public
relations purposes, they are destroying–possibly–the value of the experiments
themselves, which is the whole purpose of the thing. It is often hard for the
experimenters there to complete their work as their scientific integrity
demands.
All experiments in psychology are not of this type, however.
For example, there have been many experiments running rats through all kinds of
mazes, and so on–with little clear result. But in 1937 a man named Young did a
very interesting one. He had a long corridor with doors all along one side
where the rats came in, and doors along the other side where the food was. He
wanted to see if he could train the rats to go in at the third door down from
wherever he started them off. No. The rats went immediately to the door where
the food had been the time before.
The question was, how did the rats know, because the
corridor was so beautifully built and so uniform, that this was the same door
as before? Obviously, there was something about the door that was different
from the other doors. So he painted the doors very carefully, arranging the
textures on the faces of the doors exactly the same. Still the rats could tell.
Then he thought maybe the rats were smelling the food, so he used chemicals to
change the smell after each run. Still the rats could tell. Then he realized
the rats might be able to tell by seeing the lights and the arrangement in the
laboratory like any commonsense person. So he covered the corridor, and still
the rats could tell.
He finally found that they could tell by the way the floor
sounded when they ran over it. And he could only fix that by putting his
corridor in sand. So he covered one after another of all possible clues and
finally was able to fool the rats so that they had to learn to go in the third
door. If he relaxed any of his conditions, the rats could tell.
Now, from a scientific standpoint, that is an A-number-one
experiment. That is the experiment that makes rat-running experiments sensible,
because it uncovers that clues that the rat is really using– not what you think
it’s using. And that is the experiment that tells exactly what conditions you
have to use in order to be careful and control everything in an experiment with
rat-running.
I looked up the subsequent history of this research. The
next experiment, and the one after that, never referred to Mr. Young. They
never used any of his criteria of putting the corridor on sand, or being very
careful. They just went right on running the rats in the same old way, and paid
no attention to the great discoveries of Mr. Young, and his papers are not
referred to, because he didn’t discover anything about the rats. In fact, he discovered
all the things you have to do to discover something about rats. But not paying
attention to experiments like that is a characteristic example of cargo cult
science.
Another example is the ESP experiments of Mr. Rhine, and
other people. As various people have made criticisms–and they themselves have
made criticisms of their own experiments–they improve the techniques so that
the effects are smaller, and smaller, and smaller until they gradually
disappear. All the para-psychologists are looking for some experiment that can
be repeated–that you can do again and get the same effect–statistically, even.
They run a million rats–no, it’s people this time–they do a lot of things are
get a certain statistical effect. Next time they try it they don’t get it any
more. And now you find a man saying that is is an irrelevant demand to expect a
repeatable experiment. This is science?
This man also speaks about a new institution, in a talk in
which he was resigning as Director of the Institute of Parapsychology and in
telling people what to do next, he says that one of things they have to do is
be sure the only train students who have shown their ability to get PSI results
to an acceptable extent–not to waste their time on those ambitious and
interested students who get only chance results. It is very dangerous to have
such a policy in teaching–to teach students only how to get certain results,
rather than how to do an experiment with scientific integrity.
So I have just one wish for you–the good luck to be
somewhere where you are free to maintain the kind of integrity I have
described, and where you do not feel forced by a need to maintain your position
in the organization, or financial support, or so on, to lose your integrity.
May you have that freedom.
Richard Feynman
©2019 Guiomar Goransson All rights reserved.
